Bitcoin Weekly: The $40b Consensys Dump

Consensys 2018 is over. History did not repeat itself as several forecasters were predicting. Instead we went the other way and dumped nearly $40b of the total crypto market capitalization this week. We cover some of the reasons analysts are claiming for the dump below. However one thing can be made certain, predicting the way Bitcoin will move in the short term is similar to flipping a coin. There are certainly no absolutes in this space. Which is why in the courses we teach at ProButterfly we always build and trade according to a plan. One which has three independent reasons of taking every trade.
 

Consensys 2018 Predictions Gone Bad

Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global made a bold and very public prediction prior to the start of Consensys 2018 that we are going to be seeing the beginnings of a summer rally. Unfortunately there was no rally, rather the markets took a considerable dump this last week. After being asked about why he thought his prediction had gone awry he mentioned...
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Bitcoin Weekly: Consensys 2018 Incoming

Last week we discussed how Bitcoin was approaching key levels. It hit the resistance line at $10k and unfortunately didn’t have the momentum to pull through. As a result we did see a substantial fall in price of nearly 18% on some exchanges. The timing of this pullback is interesting as well. The big news in the coming week is the largest crypto conference held in New York. We will explore the history of this conference and it’s impact on price below. Rest assured that the summer season is incoming and price is keeping everyone guessing which way this is going to break out.

Consensys 2018

Consensys is an annual conference held by popular crypto publication CoinDesk. This is going to be their 4th annual blockchain technology summit, May 14-16, 2018 at the New York Hilton Midtown. Over 4,500 attendees are going to be a part of it including the big companies such as Microsoft, IBM, Procter & Gamble, and Siemens, huge investors like CME Ventures, banks such as AMRO,...
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Bitcoin Reflections: Key Levels Approaching

Bitcoin had another good week with positive news coming in and price continuing to climb. Whether we are reaching levels too fast is another story. The asset definitely has the momentum it needs to break through some key levels and escape out of the bear trend which is still intact. 
 
This week we will begin our reflections from a technical perspective and spend the latter part of the piece on the major news of the week. Looking forward to your feedback.

Technical Levels

 
Another week of upwards movement for Bitcoin. During the week we saw multiple retests of the 13EMA line that we have been following closely. The level acted as key support and we continued to see an upward trend. We are now approaching the 200d Moving Average yet again. This is going to be the second retest of the level. The last one was in the final week of April 2018. We didn't manage to break through it last time. This time we also have the psychological barrier of $10,000 which is at the...
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Bitcoin Reflections: Momentum Building

 
April has been a good month for Bitcoin. The social chatter has turned positive and people are talking about the moon and lambo’s again. Is Bitcoin a screaming buy as the CEO of Pantera Capital claims it to be right now? I am personally not a big fan of blanket statements like that. A lot depends on your time frame, what sort of portion it is of your overall investment portfolio and what your plan is when you do decide to buy it. Far too many people bought the hype last year and then sold the bottom. Unfortunately that is how markets work and wealth is transferred from those with a plan to those who do not have one. At ProButterfly what we are hoping to teach our readers is the ability to to invest and trade like a professional rather than the average retail investor. 
 
Let’s discuss some of the big fundamental news that we came across this week:
 

Binance Is Now More Profitable Than Deutsche Bank

The Binance digital currency exchange generated...
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Bitcoin Reflections: Massive Volume

Last week we were discussing the rough first quarter that Bitcoin has had. However with a single day this week the narrative appears to have changed. Some people may rejoicing a bit too early, however the volume spike this week is nothing to scoff at. The question one needs to ask is who was behind this massive spike and why now? This is a complicated question. The internet is littered with stories that range from the currency crisis in Iran to certain technical objectives that were hit. This reflections is going to give you an overview on multiple point of views. 

Institutional Buying

One of arguments for the massive spike in price has been the bullish stance two of the largest financial funds have taken in cryptocurrency. The first one being the $26bn Soros Fund. George Soros who had previously taken a negative stance against the asset class adjusted his position. He was on the record saying Normally, when you have a parabolic curve, eventually it has a very sharp...
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Bitcoin Reflections: OKcoin Contract Manipulation

Last week we were starting to put some structure in and finally had a week where the positive news was keeping the negative outlook in check. However this week a series of actions on a large future exchange along with a long weekend has resulted in another volatile week. From a news perspective this week there were a few major stories that captured headlines. However the big story was the quarterly closing of a major futures contract. 
 
Let’s recap where we are and what the future may bring. 
 
OKcoin quarterly contract manipulation: Between 5:40am and 6:10am on Mar 30, 2018 (Hong Kong Time) there was a group of users who executed a series of trades to manipulate the closing price of the quarterly futures contract on OKCoin. They succeeded and it sent the price of the contract well below the spot price at the time. For short time frame traders this was an anomaly that is rarely seen and caused a massive amount of liquidations on both sides of the...
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Bitcoin Reflections: 24th March 2018

Another volatile week in the world of Bitcoin. Price fluctuated between $7,222.4 and $9,195.5. That represents nearly a $2,000 range, where price tested the resolve of both the bulls and the bears. While price has recovered from it's lows and currently trades around $8,900 range, this week's price action has left a lot of people confused. Let's unpack what happened in the week to see if we can make sense of the volatility.

1. Pre G20 Summit Meeting

As mentioned in our reflections last week the G20 summit meeting could act as a catalyst to be a pivot point for Bitcoin. At the start of the week before the event price tested the $7k lows and headed into the event with weakness. This clearly looked like the market was selling the rumor before the event and hoping for some positive news to buy the news. It was probably in Bitcoin's best interest to be weak during the summit and it appeared that helped it's case.

2. Post G20 Summit Meeting

There was not a lot of news which came...

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Technical Analysis Brief - BTC/USD (2018-Mar-05)

by: Usman Sheikh

Moving higher for the 4th day in a row, BTCUSD finished Sunday at $11,486.83 edging higher $20.31 (0.18%) on low volume. Sunday's closing price of $11,486.83 marks the highest close since January 28th.

We are now looking to test the highs of February-2018 set at around $11,803. Our concerns are with regards to the divergence off volume. This may result in Bitcoin failing to break the $11,800s resistance level.

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Has Bitcoin found it's bottom after the correction?

 

The start of the year 2018 has not been very kind to Bitcoin. With prices correcting nearly 70% from the high of $20,000 in December 2017, it has been quite the roller coaster ride. Traders with experience however are not surprised because Bitcoin tends to correct itself very similarly every January & February. 

 

In January 2017 Bitcoin price correct from a peak of $1167.8 to $734.5

In January 2016 Bitcoin price correct from a peak of $475.4 to $352.6

In January 2015 Bitcoin price correct from a peak of $475.2 to $166.3

 


 

As you can see this is a trend that has been running for a couple of years and traders with experience trading this market were bracing themselves for another shakeout in 2018 as well. 

The question on everyone's mind however is whether we have found a bottom for Bitcoin after this massive retracement. 

All good traders know that picking tops and bottoms is a waste of energy. No one clearly know...

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