Sign-up for our upcoming S-REITs: Positioning To Ride the COVID Recovery Seminar (5th May 2021 - Wed)

What Is A Fair Price to Pay for Ascendas REIT amidst Rising Interest Rates?

by: Tam Ging Wien


All examples and stocks quoted here in this article and on the ProButterflyTM and REITScreenerTM site are for learning purposes; it does NOT constitute financial advice or a Buy/Sell recommendation. Contents are reflective of personal views and readers are responsible for their own investments and are advised to perform their own independent due diligence and take into account their own financial situation. If in any doubt about the investment action you should take, you should consult a professional certified financial advisor.


Due to the popularity of our previous two post relating to our series on Yield Spreads on REITs, we decided to publish a yield spread chart on another popular REIT this week - Ascendas REIT.

If you have not had a chance to catch our previous 2 articles, do catch them at our links below:

Real Estate Investment Trust or REITs for short are a type of professionally managed collective investment scheme with its primary business being the acquiring, owning and financing of income generating real estate. REITs have the benefit of providing investors with a regular income stream and prospects of long term capital appreciation.

For more information on how to analyse and invest in REITs, make sure you check out our related articles on REITs here:

Due to is steady stream of income derived from rentals of its underlying real estate assets, REITs are frequently viewed from a yield perspective.

To know if a particular REIT is trading at a price that is returning a good yield, investors may compare the REIT's DPU Yield against known risk-free rates to calculate the REIT's yield spread.

The risk-free rate is the annual interest an investor would earn if investing in an asset that is considered absolutely risk-free. Typically, the risk-free rate would be the bond yields of a highly rated bond from a sovereign nation. In the case of Singapore, the 10-Year Singapore Government Securities (SGS) can be used as the reference risk-free rate.

At the time of writing, the 10-year SGS is currently trading at a yield of about 2.25% to 2.75%.

A yield spread is the difference between yields of the REIT under analysis against the risk-free rate. The yield spread will provide a measured gauge of the risk premium when investing in the REIT.


Source: ProButterfly ResearchYahoo FinanceMonetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)

The chart above is the historical Yield Spread (%) chart for Ascendas REIT against the 10-Year Singapore Government Securities (10-year SGS).

Since Jun-2010, the average trailing yield for Ascendas REIT is 6.31% while the average yield spread is approximately 4.19%.

At the moment, the yield spread for Ascendas REIT is approximated to be 3.32% which is between the 1-StdDev and 2-StdDev line indicating that its currently trading at a fairly high price.

Ascendas REIT closed last week at $2.71 (13-Jul-2018).

For Ascendas REIT to currently provide the historical average yield spread of 4.19%, it would need to trade at approximately $2.355. That is a 13.1% potential price correction in order for it to revert to its 8-year mean yield spread. This would entail a trailing yield of 6.64%.

For Ascendas REIT to reach a good buy opportunity in our view would be for it to trade at at least 1+StdDev above the mean yield spread. At this rate, it would need to trade at a price of $2.168. That is a 20.0% potential price correction. This would entail a trailing yield of 7.21%.

The last time that Ascendas REIT traded as such a high yields in Dec-2016 and Jan-2017 when it was trading at a range of between $2.25 to $2.35. However during this same period, the yield spreads where close to 5.00%.

We think that this is very unlikely to fall into the $2.168 to $2.355 range in the near future as Ascendas REIT rarely trades as such high yield spreads unless there is an unforeseen blackswan event that occurs.

Nevertheless, we will still like to see a price correction below $2.50 to $2.355 before deciding to take a potential stake in Ascendas REIT. This gives us some level of margin of safety.

If you are planning your entries for REITs, make sure you enter at a level that gives you a high margin safety. Using the yield spread is one method to estimate an entry price with a comfortable margin of safety.

 

Positioning to Ride the Recovery

Opportunities and Risk Post-COVID-19 Pandemic in the various S-REIT Sectors

The COVID-19 crisis has brought about an unprecedented economic shock to many sectors, and yet it has also generated opportunities in others.

The tech sector has been a major beneficiary and along with that, S-REITs exposed to the Data Centre sector such as Keppel DC REIT and Mapletree Industrial Trust gained phenomenally.

But are the investment opportunities in REITs now gone? Personally, we do not think so. There are still many REITs below their pre-COVID-19 levels poise to recover strongly in the coming quarters – and now it is the best time to prepare to capture the post-COVID recovery.

Join us as we discuss the opportunities and risk in the S-REIT space sector-by-sector as we try to uncover recovery opportunities for FY2021 and beyond. Real estate sectors that we will be covering include the Retail, Hospitality, Offices, Healthcare, Industrial and Data Centres.

Our speaker Tam Ging Wien will be sharing his knowledge and experience including:

  • Part 1: A Survey of the REITs Landscape Around The World
  • Part 2: Key Metrics in Identifying Strong REITs
  • Part 3: Real Estate Sector Review Amidst the COVID Crisis
  • Part 4: Screening for Opportunities
  • Part 5: Q&A

Some key highlights that will be covered includes:

  • Real estate sector-by-sector review on COVID-19 impact and recovery opportunities. Sectors covered include the Retail, Hospitality, Offices, Healthcare, Industrial and Data Centres.
  • Opinion on which sector will continue to stay resilient and which are poised to recover quickly post-pandemic
  • The right metric to use when screening for high quality REITs
  • Case studies of REITs which are considered high quality
  • Step-by-step demo of how to screen for high quality REITs on your own

During the sharing session, various Singapore-listed REIT examples will be used.

There will also be a Q&A so that members of the investing community may engage in open dialog and discussions in order to deepen their understanding of REITs. Do prepare your writing materials for note taking.

Please note that the duration of the on-site seminar is 7pm to 9:45pm Singapore Time (GMT +8).

The details of the event are as follows:

  • Seminar: Positioning To Ride The Recovery
  • Date: 5th May 2021 (Wed)
  • Time: 7:00pm to 9:45pm
  • Venue: RNN Conference Centre - Kyoto Training Room (Level 4), 137 Cecil Street, Cecil Building #04-01, Singapore 069537
  • Fees: S$10.00
  • Sign-up Link: http://reitessentials.eventbrite.com/

To learn more about REITs, we recommend the article: What are REITs?

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